Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
