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At first, the former US president appeared to embrace a resolute stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering threats of "serious repercussions" last August should Vladimir Putin continued obstructing ceasefire negotiations, the former president eventually imposed considerable restrictions on Russia's biggest oil companies, these major energy companies. This action seriously hindered the Russian leader's ability to support his military invasion in Ukraine.

However, with his recently unveiled detailed peace initiative for Ukraine, reportedly developed by both nations' officials without Ukrainian or European involvement, the former president has clearly gone back to his Russia-friendly position.

Favoring Invasion

This plan would in practice reward Putin for invading a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's political freedom in jeopardy. Despite ringing statements that "The nation's sovereignty will be confirmed", large portions of the initiative in reality weaken that very sovereignty. What represents a Moscow's wish would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his business background, Trump persists to view the war as a mere border issue, like handing Putin a part of Ukrainian territory will please the president. Yet, Putin's war is not merely about occupying a destroyed area of industrial-devastated land in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and Putin's apparent intention to eliminate it so it ceases to serves as an attractive model for the Russian people of the democratic government that his deepening autocracy prevents them.

Land Surrenders

While maintaining in status the already split Ukrainian provinces of these areas, the plan would compel the nation to give up the entire Donetsk region. In addition to benefiting the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been failed to capture in exceeding a ten years of fighting, this surrender would render Ukrainian defenses dangerously weakened.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the fortified military defenses that constitute a critical obstacle to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, providing Putin a clear path to the capital should he subsequently decide to renew the hostilities.

Defense Restrictions

Additionally, in a action that would facilitate additional hostilities simpler for the Russian military, Trump would require Ukraine to diminish the size of its military from their current 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a limit of 600,000. Importantly, the initiative sets no such restrictions on Russian forces.

Apparently as a gesture to Russia's campaign to depict Ukraine's democratically elected administration as radicals, Trump's proposal asserts: "Every radical ideology and practices must be rejected and prohibited." Seemingly to highlight this element, it insists that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, the proposal imposes no obligation that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by allowing elections in his own country.

Security Commitments

Admittedly, the initiative makes Russia commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "establish in law its position of non-violence towards European nations and Ukraine". But given that the Russian leadership has broken equivalent accords in the past – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government committed to honor the nation's borders in exchange for giving up its historical nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia committed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of seized land in the region to the government – how should we trust this commitment now?

This explains Ukraine has been so adamant on western security guarantees. While the initiative warns of a "decisive joint military response" should the Russian Federation renew its military campaign, and includes that "Ukraine will receive reliable protection assurances", the details include fuzzy to alarming. The proposal would not just prevent the nation accession to NATO but also prohibit member states from deploying troops on the nation's land, thus blocking the reassurance force, reportedly commanded by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Russia from restoring his diminished troops, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

Global Concern

An additional parallel deal according to sources would offer the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any subsequent "significant, deliberate, and continuous military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an act of war endangering the tranquility of the allied countries." This implies a defense action. However in contrast to a powerful Ukrainian military – the nation's best deterrent against renewed invasion – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would rely on the commitment of Western powers, like Trump, to respond through arms to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not