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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the prize. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

But the current race is distinctly different. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent strugglers improving in unison. In an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and entertaining year, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still