Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.